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AD-106 in play

NYSRPA - 16 October 2018 - 7:25pm

I have received two phone polls, the second about an hour ago, regarding the AD-106 race between incumbent Assemblywoman Didi Barrett and Dutchess County Legislator Will Truitt.  That has never happened before.  I’ve received plenty of polling over the years for Gubernatorial, Congressional and State Senate races, but never for the State Assembly until now.  Based upon the questions asked the polling has to be conducted by Barrett’s people.

I think we have a shot at knocking out an antigun incumbent in this district.  There are only a handful of competitive races for state legislature so if you’d like to help Truitt’s campaign, even if you don’t live in the district, click on his name to make a donation.

 

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Against taking guns from abusers

NYSRPA - 16 October 2018 - 7:04pm

Governor Cuomo is pounding on Marc Molinaro who doesn’t even have enough campaign cash to respond with in-kind advertisements.

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Meet the Candidates

NYSRPA - 13 October 2018 - 8:09pm

I helped organize a Meet the Candidates event for the local town association.  The Republican candidates didn’t show up, but two of the three Democrats did including incumbent Assemblywoman Didi Barrett:

And Senate candidate Aaron Gladd:

Gladd briefly touched on guns. He basically reiterated his public positions, that he supports universal background checks. He also said he supported tax credits for purchasing gun safety equipment.  There are bills to do that including S-192 and S-5757 that are ostensibly pro-gun, but he isn’t trying to run as a pro-gun candidate.

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That’s what you get

NYSRPA - 9 October 2018 - 3:38pm

Many, many times I have said there is no reason for Republicans to pander to gun control advocates especially in New York where the astroturf is heavily influenced by Democrat officials and party activists.

Here is the latest example of why this never goes the Republican’s way:

“A prominent anti-gun violence group took aim Monday at GOP gubernatorial candidate Marc Molinaro for voting 32 times against bills to strengthen New York’s firearms laws. Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America also blasted Molinaro for saying on the campaign trail this year that he wants to dismantle New York State’s tough SAFE gun control law passed in the wake of the 2012 Sandy Hook Elementary School mass shooting. “It’s an obvious problem ,” said Laura Burns, the group’s state communications lead. “He wants to go backward to weaken gun laws instead [of] maintaining what we have in New York and making them stronger.” …”

This is after Molinaro put antigun Julie Killian on the ticket and told the NRA he didn’t want any of their help.

BTW, how is his campaign going?

GOP insider:”Going to be a disaster. He’ll do worse than Astorino did four years ago. A terrible candidate.” https://t.co/UkIbDIx167

— Fredric U. Dicker (@fud31) October 9, 2018

And his standing in the polls?

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is holding onto a 22-point lead over Republican Marc Molinaro as the 2018 race for governor enters its final five weeks, according to a new poll made public Monday. Cuomo, a two-term Democrat, leads Molinaro, the Dutchess County executive, 50-28 percent, according to the Siena College poll of likely voters …”

That’s what you get for not standing up for what’s right.

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Wofford is the best choice

NYSRPA - 8 October 2018 - 1:02pm

GOP Attorney General Candidate Keith Wofford is the best candidate for gun owners to get behind in a statewide race this year.  There’s a few reasons I say this.

First, as the Daily News reports he has access to money:

“In the battle for state attorney general, Republican Keith Wofford and Democrat Letitia James are neck-in-neck when it comes to campaign cash, new filings show. Wofford, a corporate lawyer and first-time candidate, reported late last week having a little more than $400,000 remaining while James has about $384,000. Wofford since mid July spent just under $1.4 million on his campaign, including $1.1 million toward a planned $3.25 million ad campaign … James, who unlike Wofford had to run in a primary, reported since her Sept. 23 post primary filing raising $320,294 and spending $210,379 —including $100,000 on TV ads …”

All serious candidates for public office must have access to adequate financial resources to run a creditable campaign.  Ideas mean nothing without a way to implement them and implementation usually requires cash.

Second, while still behind in the polls it doesn’t look as bad as the gubernatorial race:

“… James holds a 14-point lead, 50-36 percent, over Wofford. Both candidates do well with voters of their own party … She leads by seven points in the downstate suburbs and Wofford leads by seven points upstate …”

14 points is a lot, but both candidates are largely unknown by the public.  At this point anyone who does not think Andrew Cuomo is an asshole will never be convinced to vote for his opponent.

As to Wofford’s position on guns, that is still unknown.  Given that James’ made her intentions clear, his 2A views are secondary to his ability to run a competitive race.

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Faso brings home the pork

NYSRPA - 7 October 2018 - 3:16pm

Rep. John Faso stopped by the Kalicoontie Rod & Gun Club this morning to do some politicking along with Columbia County D.A. Paul Czjka.

Using a loaner shotgun he legitimately won 1st place in round one of the turkey shoot, a pork loin.

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Kinderhook GOP Fundraiser at Tri-Village RGC

NYSRPA - 29 September 2018 - 1:48pm

The Kinderhook Republican Committee held a fundraiser at Tri-Village Rod & Gun Club today.

Assemblyman Jake Ashby was there.

I have harped on this a lot and will continue to:  It is critical that gun owners attend events like this and for clubs to be open to hosting them.  This is how to effectively influence the legislative and political processes, not with rallies or bitching on social media.

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It’s about abortion, not guns

NYSRPA - 28 September 2018 - 7:07pm

Michael Filozof at American Thinker opines, “The Kavanaugh fight isn’t about abortion. It’s about guns.

“… The Kavanaugh confirmation is about the future, not refighting the cultural battles of the 1970s. And next up on the Democratic agenda is sweeping, national gun control – and possibly even confiscation …”

I don’t agree with this.

Yes, there are politicians including Governor Cuomo that would be upset if their signature gun control laws were shot down by SCOTUS.  However, the main difference between the issues is that abortion has a legitimate grassroots surrounding it and gun control does not.

Democrat politicians aren’t stupid.  They are not going to put a lot of effort into issues that do not give them a positive return at election time.  This is why gun control is largely dead on the national level and all but a handful of states like New York.  Abortion isn’t.  SCOTUS issued a ruling that largely kept that issue from being fought in the states.  If it were overturned that’s where it would go.  If SAFE were overturned most of the country would be unaffected.  This is why whenever their is a court vacancy or a significant ruling about to come down abortion protestors can be seen with signs outside rallying.  Gun control advocates don’t do that because they can’t.  The culture war on guns has largely been won by 2A.  The same cannot be said about abortion.

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Giffords’ endorsements

NYSRPA - 28 September 2018 - 2:23pm

Coming on the heels of Everytown’s endorsments, Giffords’ has made some endorsements of their own for the fall elections:

Some thoughts on these:

  • Unlike like Bloomberg’s these appear to have been done in-house.  That does not mean they have a legitimate grassroots, just that they have at least one person on staff with some political knowledge.
  • The incumbent endorsements are just for prestige, like what NRA does.  Since incumbents usually win this gives them the ability to say later on that 85% (or whatever) of Giffords-endorsed candidates won.
  • It is unclear what, if anything, comes with the endorsements.  Money, mailings, etc.
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Guess who’s back, back again …

NYSRPA - 26 September 2018 - 1:05pm

Mayor Bloomberg is back.

Politico reports:

Everytown for Gun Safety, the pro-gun control group founded by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, is rolling out a $5 million digital ad campaign targeting 15 House races, as the group continues heavy investment in the midterm elections … The group is also going after seven open, Republican-controlled seats representing districts that include suburbs in metro areas from Seattle to New York City …”

Who are they targeting?  According to Slate:

“… All 15 of its targets are on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” list, districts with strong Democratic candidates with potential to defeat the incumbent Republican or keep their seats in a contentious race …”

That gives us this list:

A few thoughts:

First, this isn’t a grassroots effort.  It’s just Mayor Mike funneling his cash through Everytown.  More astroturf.

Second, this is just plain lazy.  I know from experience that surveying candidates and trying to figure out where to put resources is a big effort that takes a long prep time.  Everytown clearly didn’t do any of that if they admit to using DCC’s list.

Third, they are targeting antigun Republican Dan Donovan in CD-11.  Giving the finger to your supporters is not smart.

Fourth, in CD-19 Delgado is largely avoiding gun control with only a vague statement about treating “gun violence” as a public health issue on his campaign website.  With it being a 4-way race the campaign does not seem to believe going hard for gun control would be good for them.

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SAFE on the campaign trial

NYSRPA - 20 September 2018 - 3:38pm

Marc Molinaro brought up the SAFE Act while campaigning in Utica:

“… Molinaro said he would dismantle the SAFE Act; something he said would make the state safer. He added that the focus should be on the root causes of violent acts and not making criminals out of honest citizens …”

Molinaro has a progun record from his time in the Assembly and as Dutchess Co. Executive and there is nothing wrong with campaigning on that record.

However, he does have a few problems:

  • His running-mate Julie Killian has antigun record.  This might be tolerable if she brought something positive to the campaign which she doesn’t given her proven track record of failure at the ballot box.
  • He publicly stated he does not want any help from the NRA.  It’s fine not to want to make gun control a central issue of the campaign and it is also fine not to want to accept any corporation donations.  But singling out NRA, and by extension members like me, can be construed as insulting.  NRA’s response should have been, “Fine.  Go fuck yourself.”
  • Republicans own the SAFE Act as much as the Cuomo and the Democrats do.

The Governor decided to pounce on Molinaro with this ad:

Cuomo too has some problems:

  • This ad isn’t effective.  It’s just nasty and tries to portray Molinaro himself as nasty.  I have never heard of anyone referring to Molinaro that way and is not very believable.
  • Just last week the Governor himself acknowledged that a key component of the SAFE Act, an ammunition sales database, has not been implemented and he doesn’t know when or if it ever will be up and running.
  • It is obvious that the vast majority of gun owners are simply refusing to comply with SAFE.
  • There is no pro-gun control voting block.

So what are the campaigns going to get from all this?  Nothing.  The negatives outweigh the positives for both of them.

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